In Crohn's disease, studies have evaluated the ability of biological markers to predict relapse in the next 12 to 18 months.
However, these studies did not differentiate early from late relapses.
Dr Yann Consigny and colleagues looked for biological markers of short-term relapse.
In a previous therapeutic trial, patients with a medically induced clinical remission had biological markers evaluated and updated every 6 weeks.
|Relative risk of short-term relapse for a positive vs negative score was 8|
|Inflammatory Bowel Diseases|
The team of researchers used a Cox model with time-dependent covariates was used for analysis.
Among the 71 patients, 38 had a relapse.
Multivariate analysis selected 2 markers predictive of relapse.
These markers included C-reactive protein of more than 20 mg/L, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate more than 15 mm.
A binary biological predictive score was derived, using ‘negative' when both were lower than their limits, and ‘positive' when otherwise.
The researchers found that the relative risk of short-term relapse for patients with a positive score compared to those with a negative score was 8.
The team noted that the sensitivity of the score was 89%, and specificity was 43%.
Assuming a 10% relapse rate every 6 weeks, negative and positive predictive values were 97% and 15%, respectively.
Dr Consigny's team concludes, “This simple biological score can predict short-term maintenance of remission in Crohn's disease, and may help physicians in the follow-up of patients in clinical remission.”