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 26 May 2018

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News

Prediction of postoperative mortality in elderly colorectal cancer patients

Doctors in the latest issue of Diseases of the Colon and Rectum develop a model to accurately estimate postoperative 30-day mortality in elderly colorectal cancer patients.

News image

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In this study, doctors from the United Kingdom evaluated postoperative mortality in elderly patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer.

The team used routinely collected clinical data and assessed patients over 80 years. They set 30-day operative mortality as the primary end point.

The team performed a multilevel logistic regression model to accommodate the 3 study populations included.

The team found a 30-day mortality of 16%.
Diseases of the Colon and Rectum

They internally validated the model using a Bayesian re-sampling technique.

A total of 2533 patients satisfied the inclusion criteria.

They identified American Society of Anesthesiology grade, operative urgency, no cancer excision vs resection, and metastatic disease as risk factors.

The doctors found that the model offered adequate discrimination, and excellent agreement between observed and predicted outcomes during 8 colorectal procedures.

Dr Alexander Heriot's team concluded, "The elderly colorectal cancer model can accurately estimate 30-day mortality in patients older than aged 80 years undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer".

"Because the mortality can be considerable, this may have important implications when determining management for this group of patients".

Dis Colon Rectum 2006; 49(6): 816-24
06 June 2006

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