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 19 February 2018

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News

Predictors of severity and survival in acute pancreatitis

The latest issue of Pancreas validates the efficacy of early warning scores in predicting severity and survival in acute pancreatitis.

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Early Warning Scores is a widely used scoring system monitoring patient progress, which we have previously shown to predict outcome from acute pancreatitis.

Dr Garcea and colleagues examined early warning scores from a larger group of patients to confirm if this predictive value held true.

The early warning scores were compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, and modified organ dysfunction scores.

The research team also compared these with Imrie scores, computed tomography grading scores, and Ranson criteria for 181 admissions with acute pancreatitis.

By day 2 after admission, the early warning scores was the most accurate predictor of mortality
Pancreas

The accuracy of early warning scores in predicting outcome was determined by receiver operator characteristics.

The researchers identified a total of 181 patients with acute pancreatitis.

On day 1 of admission, APACHE II scores were the most accurate predictor of mortality with an area under curve values of 0.9, closely followed by early warning scores.

By day 2 and 3 after admission, the early warning scores was the most accurate predictor of mortality.

The research team noted that the APACHE II was the second most accurate scoring system at 48 and 72 hours.

Dr Garcea’s team commented, "The early warning scores on days 2 and 3 after admission are sensitive and specific in predicting mortality from acute pancreatitis.”

“It is as accurate as the APACHE II scores and easier to implement in daily practice.”

Pancreas 2008: 37(3): 54-61


02 October 2008

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