Dr Deuffic-Burban and colleagues from France estimated the future disease burden of Hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in the USA until 2030.
The team developed 2 back-calculation models of the human immunodeficiency virus and the Hepatitis C virus epidemic.
The models were based on epidemiological data regarding prevalence, age and gender of incident cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and hepatocellular carcinoma mortality.
The data was taken from the Centers for Disease Control and World Health Organisation.
|Hep C infection is expected to peak at about 13,000 in 2030|
|Journal of Viral Hepatitis|
The back-calculation model showed that Hepatitis C virus incidence peaked in 1984 at 350,000 new infections.
The research team showed that Hepatitis C incidence fell to about 77,000 in 1998.
The researchers found that HIV incidence reached its maximum in 1989 at 142,000 new infections, and then declined to 79,000 in 1998.
The team noted that mortality related to Hepatitis C virus rose from about 3700 in 1998, and is expected to peak at about 13,000 in 2030.
Predicted Hepatitis C virus mortality would fall only if increased access to or more effective antiviral therapy occurs.
The researchers compared this with HIV-related mortality, which was 14,400 in 1998, and projected to be 4200 for 2030.
Dr Deuffic-Burban's team concludes, “With the availability of effective highly active antiretroviral therapy for HIV infection, mortality from HIV appears to have declined substantially.”
“Hepatitis C virus-related deaths as a result of pre-1999 infections will likely continue to increase over the next 25 years.”