The model can successfully be used to separate patients into high risk and low risk groups - but its predictions for individual patients are frequently wrong, researchers from the University of Nebraska, Omaha, USA, reported.
|Using MELD for liver transplant patients needs to be re-evaluated.
|Digestive Disease Week |
The researchers tested the model on 70 patients waiting for liver transplants - using it to calculate risk scores.
The model assigned 61 patients to a low-risk group - and over 12 months, 8 of these died. 9 patients were classified as high risk - and 8 of these died.
However, the model overestimated mortality in the low-risk group, and underestimated it in the high-risk group, the research team will tell DDW in Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Researcher Dr Timothy McCashland said, "The model was set up to calculate mortality for 3 months, but a lot of patients wait for a transplant for 2 years.
"There's still a big spread on what the model predicts and what actually happened with our patients. At the very top and bottom I think it does a good job, but in the middle I think there's still a shade of gray."