Dr Kenji Ikeda estimated hepatocarcinogenesis rates in patients with Hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis, an accurate prediction table was created.
A total of 183 patients between 1974 and 1990 were assessed for carcinogenesis rate and risk factors.
Predicted carcinogenesis rates were validated using a cohort from the same hospital between 1991 and 2003 of 302 patients.
The research team also used an external cohort of 205 patients from Tokyo National Hospital between 1975 and 2002.
The researchers found that carcinogenesis rates in the primary cohort were 30% at the 5th year and 54% at the 10th year.
|The 10-year rates varied from 64% to 93%|
|Journal of Hepatology|
The team identified that alpha-fetoprotein, age, gender, and platelet count were independently associated with carcinogenesis.
Carcinogenesis rates were simulated in 16 conditions according to 4 binary variables.
The team found that the 5th- and 10th-year rates varied from 9% to 64%, and 21% to 93%, respectively.
Actual carcinogenesis rates in the internal and external validation cohorts were similar to those of the simulated curves.
Dr Ikeda's team concluded, “Simulated carcinogenesis rates were applicable to patients with Hepatitis C-related cirrhosis.”
“Since, hepatocarcinogenesis rates markedly varied among patients depending on background features, we should consider stratifying them for cancer screening and cancer prevention programs.”