Egypt has the highest prevalence of Hepatitis C in the world, apparently due to mass parenteral antischistosomal therapy.
Estimating the future burden of Hepatitis C in Egypt is important to support health policies to combat the epidemic.
Dr Sylvie Deuffic-Burbanab and colleagues adapted a previous back calculation model to the situation in Egypt.
The researchers combined a model of the natural history of Hepatitis C infections with available epidemiological data.
The research team then back calculated the past Hepatitis C incidence from observed hepatocellular carcinoma mortality between 1980 to 1999.
In turn, the Hepatitis C-related mortality burden was projected in the future based on pre-2000 infections.
|Globally, the model predicts over a 2-fold increase in Hep C-related mortality|
|Journal of Gastroenterology|
Compared with the observed number of hepatocellular carcinoma deaths in 1999, the model predicts a 4-fold increase in this mortality in the next 20 years.
Globally, the model predicts just over a 2-fold increase in the Hepatitis C-related mortality.
The team noted that these predictions do not take into account the new infections that may occur after 2000.
The researchers observed that further infections post-2000 would increase the estimated future mortality burden.
Dr Deuffic-Burbanab's team concluded, “Hepatitis C-related mortality is expected at least to double in the next 20 years.”
“The use of antiviral therapies can lower these predictions.”
“Efficient prevention policies are needed to avoid these predictions being exceeded.”