Researchers from England compared 3 models used to estimate survival in patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD).
They assessed the survival benefit of transplantation, and compared outcome in 6 liver-transplant centers.
The team used the Béclére and Birmingham models and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) to estimate survival without transplantation in 82 patients with end-stage ALD.
They also calculated posttransplant survival in the same cohort of patients.
Individual short-term survival gain after liver transplantation was determined.
|Survival gain varies between centers.|
Survival was compared across the liver transplant centers.
The researchers found that the expected gain in survival differed depending on which model was used.
They determined that the survival gain over 4 years was 1.7 years using the Béclére model, 0.95 years using MELD, and 0.08 years using the Birmingham model.
The team also found that 2 of the centers had greater estimated survival gains, up to 4 years post-transplant, regardless of which model was used.
Dr Tracey Young's team concluded, "These findings suggest that although liver transplantation is associated with an improvement in survival, the gain over 4 years is modest".
"The 3 models are poorly correlated and should be applied with caution".
"Survival gain does, however, appear to vary between centers".