The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the probability of death after surgery for colorectal cancer.
Researchers from England assessed data from the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI). This contained the details of 8077 patients who had a new diagnosis of colorectal cancer during a 12 month period.
|Postoperative mortality was 8%.|
|British Medical Journal|
The team used a 3 level hierarchical logistic regression model to identify independent predictors of operative mortality.
They developed the model using 60% of the patient population, and tested its validity on the remaining 40%.
The researchers found that overall postoperative mortality was 8%.
They identified independent predictors of death as age, American Society of Anesthesiology grade, Duke's stage, urgency of the operation, and cancer excision.
The team's model showed good discrimination and calibration.
Dr Paris Tekkis's team concluded, "Clinicians can predict postoperative death by using a simple numerical table derived from the statistical model of the ACPGBI".
"The model can be used in everyday practice for preoperative counseling of patients and their carers as a part of multidisciplinary care".
"It may also be used to compare the outcomes between multidisciplinary teams for colorectal cancer".