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 20 October 2017

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News

Predicting survival after primary tumor resection in advanced colorectal cancer

September's Diseases of the Colon & Rectum validates a prognostic scoring model and an online calculator to provide individualized survival estimation for patients with stage IV colorectal cancer.

News image

A prognostic scoring model has been devised previously to predict survival following primary tumor resection in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer and unresectable metastases.

This has yet to be validated.

Dr Winson Jianhong Tan and colleagues validated the proposed prognostic scoring model and create an interactive online calculator to estimate an individual’s survival after primary tumor resection.

Clinical data and survival outcomes of patients were extracted from a prospectively maintained database.

Patients were categorized into good, moderate, or poor survivor groups based on the previously proposed scoring algorithm.

Discrimination was assessed and recalibration was performed, with the recalibrated model implemented as an interactive Web application to provide individualized survival probability.

Median survival in the poor prognostic groups was 20 months
Diseases of the Colon & Rectum

The team conducted a study at a tertiary referral center.

The researchers included 324 consecutive patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma and unresectable metastases who underwent primary tumor resection between 2008 and 2013.

The team's primary outcome measured was overall survival.

The research team included 324 patients in the study.

Median survival in the good, moderate, and poor prognostic groups was 57, 26, and 20 months.

The κ statistic was 0.638 and R2D was 0.101.

The team noted significant differences in survival were found between the moderate and good prognostic groups, and between poor and good prognostic groups.

The model was implemented as an interactive online calculator to provide individualized survival estimation after primary tumor resection.

Dr Tan's team commented, "The prognostic scoring model provides good prognostic stratification of survival after primary tumor resection and may be a useful tool to predict survival after primary tumor resection."

Dis Colon Rectum 2017: 60(9): 895–904
17 August 2017

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