A considerable number of patients with Crohn's disease develop irreversible intestinal damage, although the early administration of immunomodulatory or biological therapies might prevent this.
Dr Yehyun Park and colleagues developed and validated a novel predictive model that can be used to predict the risk of surgical intervention in Korean patients with Crohn's disease .
The prognostic model was derived from the multicenter longitudinal CONNECT (CrOhn's disease cliNical NEtwork and CohorT) study cohort consisting of 1338 patients with Crohn's disease, who were split into training and validation sets.
|28% underwent Crohn's disease-related surgery|
|Inflammatory Bowel Diseases|
The researchers analyzed a total of 1271 patients with Crohn's disease.
During the follow-up period of 10,188 patient-years, the team observed that 28% underwent Crohn's disease-related surgery.
Age at diagnosis, jejunal involvement, initial disease behavior, and perianal disease at diagnosis were associated with a poor prognosis and included in the KCDP model, which showed a modest discrimination ability with a Harrel's c-index of 0.73 at 5 years, and was well calibrated.
Dr Park's team concludes, "This is the first validated surgery risk prediction model for Korean patients with Crohn's disease."
"It provides accurate individualized estimates of the probability of surgery using clinical parameters collected at diagnosis."
"This model might guide appropriate patient selection for the early intensive treatment of Crohn's disease."