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Predictions of colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil

A study in the Diseases of the Colon & Rectum predicts colorectal cancer mortality until the Year 2025, and reports on cancer control implications.

News image

Although data exist on the number of deaths by colorectal cancer in Brazil, there is no information detailed by geographic regions and age groups regarding the future impact of this disease.

Dr Dyego Souza and colleagues performed predictions for colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil, and its geographic regions until the year 2025.

The team conducted an ecological study in the geographic regions of Brazil.

Data were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry, and from population-based data of the Brazilian Statistics and Geography Institute.

The research team's main outcome measures were the predictions of the number of deaths and mortality rates for 2011–2025 based on the mortality incidence of colorectal cancer during 1996–2010.
The predicted increase in deaths by colorectal cancer is 76% in men
Diseases of the Colon & Rectum

Significant increases were verified in Brazilian rates between 1996 and 2006, followed by stable rates until 2010.

For men, predictions indicate increasing rates both at a national level and by geographic regions, except for the South region.

In women, increasing rates are expected for the overall country and for the North, Northeast, and Central West regions, whereas decreasing rates are expected for the Southeast and South regions.

At a national level, the predicted increase in deaths by colorectal cancer is 76% in men, and 68% in women.

The team noted that 56% and 61% can be attributed to population changes, and 20% and 7% because of risk increases.

Dr Souza' team concludes, "Increasing mortality rates for colorectal cancer are expected in Brazil until the year 2025, mostly because of the aging process of the population."

"The results presented herein show that the disease burden will be higher in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions of the country, which also correspond with the least developed regions."

Dis Colon Rectum 2014: 57(9): 1082–1089
21 August 2014

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