Risk prediction models for Barrett’s esophagus have been developed using multiple demographic and clinical variables, but their predictive performance has been modest.
Adding a multibiomarker risk score may improve discriminatory ability.
Dr Aaron Thrift and colleagues from Australia used data from 141 patients with definitive Barrett’s esophagus and 138 controls participating in a case-control study at the Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center.
The team derived and compared 3 prediction models.
Model 1 included only gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) frequency and duration.
Model 2 included GERD frequency and duration, age, sex, race, waist-to-hip ratio, and Helicobacter pylori status.
|Persons with a score of 3 or higher had more than a 10-fold increased risk for Barrett’s|
|Clinical Gastroenterology & Hepatology|
Model 3 included the variables in model 2 as well as a multibiomarker risk score based on serum levels of interleukin (IL)12p70, IL6, IL8, IL10, and leptin.
The researchers assessed their predictive accuracy in terms of discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration analyses.
The team found that the multibiomarker risk score was associated significantly with risk for Barrett’s esophagus.
Compared with persons with a score of 0, persons with a score of 3 or higher had a greater than 10-fold increased risk for Barrett’s esophagus.
Risk prediction using the multibiomarker score in conjunction with demographic and clinical features improved discrimination compared with using only GERD frequency and duration.
Dr Thrift's team concludes, "Based on data from a case-control study of predominantly white male veterans, a risk prediction model including a multibiomarker score, derived from serum levels of cytokines and leptin, as well as GERD frequency and duration, age, sex, race, waist-to-hip ratio, and H pylori infection, can identify persons in this population with Barrett’s esophagus more accurately than previous methods."