Dr Michal Kaminski and colleagues from Poland developed and validated a model to estimate the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in Caucasian patients.
The researchers performed a cross-sectional analysis of database records for 40-year-old to 66-year-old patients who entered a national primary colonoscopy-based screening program for colorectal cancer in 73 centers in Poland in the year 2007.
The researchers used multivariate logistic regression to investigate the associations between clinical variables and the presence of advanced neoplasia in a randomly selected test set, and confirmed the associations in a validation set.
The team used model coefficients to develop a risk score for detection of advanced colorectal neoplasia.
|Advanced colorectal neoplasia was detected in 7%|
Advanced colorectal neoplasia was detected in 7% of the included participants.
In the test set, a logistic-regression model showed that independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia included age, sex, family history of colorectal cancer, cigarette smoking, and Body Mass Index.
In the validation set, the team noted that the model was well calibrated, and had moderate discriminatory power.
The researchers developed a score that estimated the likelihood of detecting advanced neoplasia in the validation set, from about 1% for patients scoring 0, to 19% for patients scoring 7–8.
Dr Kaminski's team concludes, "Developed and internally validated score consisting of simple clinical factors successfully estimates the likelihood of detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia in asymptomatic Caucasian patients."
"Once externally validated, it may be useful for counselling or designing primary prevention studies."