Dr Hermann Brenner and colleagues from Germany derived age and sex specific estimates of transition rates from advanced adenomas to colorectal cancer.
The research team combined data of a nationwide screening colonoscopy registry and national data on colorectal cancer incidence.
|The annual transition rate increased by 3% between 55 to 59 years and 80 years|
The researchers assessed 840,149 participants of screening colonoscopy between 2003 and 2004.
Advanced adenoma prevalence, and colorectal cancer incidence were evaluated.
In addition, the team analyzed annual and 10 year cumulative risk of developing colorectal cancer among carriers of advanced adenomas according to gender and age.
The researchers found that the age gradient is much stronger for colorectal cancer incidence than for advanced adenoma prevalence.
As a result, projected annual transition rates from advanced adenomas to colorectal cancer strongly increase with age.
Among women, the team observed an increase from 3% in the age group 55 to 59 years, to 6% in the age group 80 years.
In men, the annual transition rate increased 3% in the age group 55 to 59 years, to 5% in the age group 80 years.
The team found that projections of 10 year cumulative risk increased from 25% at age 55 years to 43% at age 80 years in women.
For men, the team observed that the projected 10 year cumulative risk increased from 25% at age 55 years to 40% at age 80 years.
Dr Brenner's team concluded, "Advanced adenoma transition rates are similar in both gender groups, but there is a strong age gradient for both gender groups."
"Our estimates of transition rates in older age groups are in line with previous estimates derived from small case series in the pre-colonoscopy era independent of age."
"However, our projections for younger age groups are considerably lower."
"These findings may have important implications for the design of colorectal cancer screening programs."